The trend could be exponential, which would be the mathematical expectation. An exponential fit gives a R2 (goodness of fit) of 0.94 (very good fit). If the exponential trend were to be maintained, by May 7 there should be over 4,000 confirmed cases of Swine flu in the US. If this prediction fails, it could be an indication that containment measures are having an effect. We'll see.
Update 5/7/2009
I've continued to follow the count of confirmed cases in the US. While it didn't go into the thousands by May 7, an exponential model continues to fit the series quite well.
While cases have reportedly plateaued in Mexico, the same is not true of the US just yet.
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1 comments:
Joesph, sorry to go off to a different subject here but I didn't want to put this on Natural Variation and I don't have your email address.
I was wondering if you could do me a favour. Joeker is being a pest on his new blog about me, and he believes that I've told my friends not to contact him. The reality is we all agree that he is a lunatic and completely obsessed with the lies he believes about me and he is best not responded to at all.
The trouble is he needs to be told this by someone not involved in my website - that he is behaving like a lunatic or something that will convince him that it's over and he needs to move on.
If you don't feel comfortable doing this I'll understand. Just have a look at the blog and form your own conclusions and work off that. Just put "whoistimelord" ahead of the blogspot.com URL and it will take you there. And could you NOT do that directly from this blog? He may backtrack and see this post - and in his paranoid state he may believe that I'm trying to influence your view of him and try to fight back accordingly and try to engage me yet again.
PHIL
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